Real GDP Has Been Estimated To Grow By 8.2% In Q2 Of FY 2025-26

The National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is releasing in this Press Note, the Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the July-September Quarter (Q2) of Financial Year (FY) 2025-26 along with its Expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. Quarterly and Half-Yearly (April-September) Estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices for various economic sectors along with Year-on-Year percent changes as well as Expenditure components of GDP in respect of FY 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 at Constant and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 8 of Annexure A.

Key Highlights:

• Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 8.2% in Q2 of FY 2025-26 against the growth rate of 5.6% during Q2 of FY 2024-25.
• Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 8.7% in Q2 of FY 2025-26.
• The Secondary (8.1%) and Tertiary Sector (9.2%) has boosted the Real GDP growth rate in Q2 of FY 2025-26 to rise above 8.0%.
• Manufacturing (9.1%) and Construction (7.2%) in the Secondary Sector, has registered above 7.0% growth rate at Constant Prices in this quarter.
• Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services (10.2%) in the Tertiary Sector has sustained a substantial growth rate at Constant Prices in Q2 of FY 2025-26.
• Agriculture and Allied (3.5%) and Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services Sector (4.4%) has seen moderated Real growth rate during Q2 of FY 2025-26.
• Real Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) has reported 7.9% growth rate during Q2 of FY 2025-26 as compared to the 6.4% growth rate in the corresponding period of previous financial year.
• Real GDP has registered 8.0% growth rate in H1 (April-September) of FY 2025-26, as compared to the growth rate of 6.1% in H1 of FY 2024-25.

I. Quarterly Estimates and Growth Rates

Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in Q2 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹48.63 lakh crore, against ₹44.94 lakh crore in Q2 of FY 2024-25, registering a growth rate of 8.2%. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in Q2 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹85.25 lakh crore, against ₹78.40 lakh crore in Q2 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.7%.

Real GVA in Q2 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹44.77 lakh crore, against ₹41.41 lakh crore in Q2 of FY 2024-25, registering a growth rate of 8.1%. Nominal GVA in Q2 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹77.69 lakh crore, against ₹71.45 lakh crore in Q2 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.7%.

II. Half-Yearly Estimates and Growth Rates

Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in April-September of 2025-26 (H1 2025-26) is estimated at ₹96.52 lakh crore, against ₹89.35 lakh crore in H1 of 2024-25, registering a growth rate of 8.0%. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in H1 of 2025-26 is estimated at ₹171.30 lakh crore, against ₹157.48 lakh crore in H1 of 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.8%.

Real GVA in H1 of 2025-26 is estimated at ₹89.41 lakh crore, against ₹82.88 lakh crore in H1 of 2024-25, registering a growth rate of 7.9%. Nominal GVA in H1 of 2025-26 is estimated at ₹155.94 lakh crore, against ₹143.39 lakh crore in H1 of 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.8%.

III. Methodology and Major Data Sources

Quarterly Estimates of GDP are compiled using the Benchmark-indicator method i.e., the estimates available for the same quarter of the previous financial year (2024-25) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. Data sourced from various Ministries/Departments/Private Agencies serve as valuable inputs in the compilation of these estimates.

The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators, such as (i) Crop production targets for Agriculture Year (AY) 2025-26 and First Advance Estimates of Production of Food grains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for AY 2025-26, (ii) Third Advance Estimates of Area & Production of Horticulture crops for AY 2024-25, (iii) Summer Season Estimates of Major Livestock Products for FY 2025-26, (iv) Fish Production estimates for Q2 of FY 2025-26, (v) Financial performance of Listed Companies based on available quarterly financial results of these companies for Q2 of FY 2025-26, (vi) Production of Coal, Crude Petroleum, Natural Gas, Cement and Consumption of Steel, (vii) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (viii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (ix) Air Passenger and Cargo traffic handled at Airports, (x) Cargo traffic handled at Major and Minor Sea Ports, (xi) Sales of Commercial vehicles, (xii) Bank Deposits and Credits, (xiii) Premium related information of Life and No

Total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST revenue. Information from the websites of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices. For compiling taxes on products at Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies at Current Prices for Centre were compiled using information on major subsidies viz, Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy upto Q2 of FY 2025-26. The total product subsidies at Current Prices for State were compiled using information on expenditure incurred on total subsidies by States upto Q2 of FY 2025-26.

The indicators used for compilation of Expenditure components of GDP relies on a subset of indicators that are used in Production approach. However, the components like Import of Goods and Services, Export of Goods and Services, Valuables, Import and Export of Capital Goods are compiled based on the Monthly Import and Export data, sourced from Ministry of Commerce and Industry and Reserve Bank of India. Information available on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. from the websites of CGA and CAG were used for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE). The Discrepancy refers to the gap between GDP by Production and Expenditure approach. The estimates of various economic sectors, as well as expenditure components using different kind of data sources and deflators, have likely attributed to the quantum and direction of Discrepancy.

Improved data coverage and revision in input data made by source agencies would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of the estimates published in this Press Note. It is being informed that, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is currently in the process of revising the Base year of National Accounts from FY 2011-12 (Current Series) to FY 2022-23 (New Series). Therefore, the Quarterly Estimates will undergo revisions due to Changes in the Methodology of Estimation at Current and Constant Prices, Incorporation of Updated and New Data Sources, Updation of Annual Benchmark etc. Users should take these factors into consideration while interpreting the subsequent revised estimates. The next Quarterly GDP estimates based on New Series will be released on 27.02.2026.

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