Tuesday is Fat with Economic Reports

By Rick Pendergraft

Everyone will have their eyes on the Fed tomorrow, as another 50 basis-point rate cut is expected. The more important part will be the policy statement going forward. As of this writing, Fed Funds futures are priced for a 43-percent chance of a 50 basis-point cut and a 41-percent chance of a 75 basis-point cut.

Before the Fed meets on Tuesday, though, the New York Empire State Index will be released this morning. This particular report was very disappointing last month and provided a catalyst for one of the many downswings we have seen over the last month. Analysts expected the report to show continued slowing, but not as bad as the -11.7 reading from last month.

Tuesday will be an incredibly busy day for reports. In addition to the Fed meeting, housing starts and building permits will be released before the open and are expected to continue their slide. Housing starts reached a 17-year low in December. If the predictions are accurate, this will be a new low.

Also getting released tomorrow morning are the Producer Price Index numbers for February. Analysts expect prices to rise by a modest 0.3 percent after the one-percent jump in January. I would be surprised if this is the case given the incredible rise in oil prices since the first of the year.

The last two reports for the week are scheduled for Thursday morning. The Leading Indicators report for February and the Philly Fed Survey for March are both scheduled for 10:00 a.m., and both are expected to show continuing declines in economic activity. The Philly Fed Survey was another one that caught the market off guard last month and brought some selling with it.