The country's gross GST collections could rise to Rs 4 lakh crore to Rs 5 lakh crore every month in the coming years, provided systemic loopholes in the indirect tax framework are fully plugged, according to the State Bank of India's (SBI) Group Chief Economic Advisor and member of the 16th Finance Commission.
Speaking at the Public Policy Conference hosted by the Delhi School of Economics on Thursday, the senior economist said his discussions with government officials point to a potential doubling of India's monthly GST mop-up from current levels.
GST Collections Have Doubled in Five Years
Highlighting the Centre's efforts to curb leakages, he noted that GST revenues have witnessed a steep rise over the past half-decade.
- GST collections in FY21 stood at Rs 11 lakh crore.
- For FY26, the Union Budget has projected the GST kitty to hit Rs 25 trillion.
- Average monthly gross GST collections have grown from below Rs 1 lakh crore to over Rs 2 lakh crore in the last five years, a development he called "a remarkable achievement."
He added, "I understand from my conversations with the government that the potential could be significantly higher - even Rs 4 lakh crore or Rs 5 lakh crore monthly, if all loopholes are plugged."
October GST Data Shows Steady Momentum
According to official data, India's gross GST collections in October were Rs 1.96 lakh crore, marking a 4.6% year-on-year rise despite sweeping GST rate reductions implemented from September 22.
In the first seven months of FY26, GST collections have totalled Rs 13.89 lakh crore - a 9% increase from the same period last year. Monthly collections have crossed the Rs 2 lakh crore mark twice so far this fiscal:
- A record Rs 2.37 lakh crore in April
- Rs 2.01 lakh crore in May
November GST Collections May Cross Rs 2 Lakh Crore Again
Citing an SBI Research assessment published earlier this week, he said GST revenues for November 2025 are expected to exceed Rs 2 lakh crore, supported by robust festive demand, improved compliance, and the impact of lower GST rates. The official numbers will be released on December 1.
He emphasised that the current average of Rs 2 lakh crore per month is an underestimate, adding that stronger coordination between the Centre and states in sealing revenue gaps could push the figure much higher. "Better the indirect tax structure, the better it can subsidise direct taxes," he noted.
Centre's Tax Targets for FY26
As per the Union Budget for FY26:
- Gross tax revenue is projected at Rs 42.7 lakh crore, a 10.8% rise over the FY25 revised estimates.
- Central GST revenue is expected to increase 11.3% year-on-year, reaching Rs 10.11 lakh crore.
The projections signal optimism around India's tax buoyancy, with GST continuing to play a pivotal role in the country's fiscal consolidation roadmap.
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