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India's real GDP growth for the second quarter of FY26 (July-September 2025) is expected to reach 7.5% or higher, driven by a powerful consumption boost following the GST rate cut, according to the State Bank of India (SBI) Research Department's latest report released on Tuesday, November 18, 2025.
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SBI Research projects India's real GDP growth for the second quarter of FY26 (July-September 2025) to reach 7.5% or higher.
The growth is primarily driven by a strong consumption boost during the festive season, following a GST rate cut, alongside a pickup in investment activity and revival in rural consumption.
GST rate cuts have helped revive festive sentiment and stimulated demand across most sectors, with consumers potentially saving up to 7% per month on average.
Services and manufacturing sectors are performing strongly, and leading indicators across agriculture, industry, and services have shown acceleration.
Potential risks include global commodity price volatility and trade disruptions, though India's macroeconomic stability remains robust.
Credit and debit card spending showed strong growth, particularly in merchant categories like auto, electronics, and travel. Mid-tier cities demonstrated the strongest consumption revival.
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