Stock Computational Tools

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Stock Computational Tools

 

Beta

A measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the overall market. A beta of less than one indicates lower volatility than the market; a beta of more than one indicates higher volatility than the market.Generally Consumer and utility stocks have low beta compared to cyclicals and industrials.
 
 
Book Value

It shows the
historic cost of the assets as reduced by the depreciation . It is significant for evaluating Banking company stocks. Stocks of companies holding large blocks of land and other hidden assets are evaluated on this basis. It does not make sense to look at book value for companies in high growth  businesses. 

Shareholders funds
_________________
No. Of Equity shares
 
 
Cost of Capital

This is the cost of borrowing funds from the market.
The ROE and the ROCE should be more then the cost of capital or else it would make little sense for the company to borrow funds . For stocks in the emerging markets the cost of capital should be 300 to 400 basis points above the risk free rate of return .

Risk free rate of return + Equity risk premium.
 
 
Debt Equity Ratio

Long-term debt divided by shareholders' equity, showing relationship between long-term funds provided by creditors with respect to the Shareholders funds. 
A high Debt Equity ratio  indicates high risk while a  lower ratio may indicates lower risk . Short-term debt is not included as long as cash is greater then short-term debt. As equity increases relative to debt, the company becomes a more attractive investment. Finally, bond debt is preferred to bank debt because bank debt is due on demand. Companies that repay back debt experience PE expansion compared to companies that take on debt. 

 Long term loans
_________________
Shareholders Funds
 
 
Delta

The delta factor is calculated by dividing the amount of price difference of the option value by the amount of price difference in the underlying stock. For example if the price of the stock option increases by 2% when the stock price went up 4%, you would have a delta factor of 0.50 arrived at by dividing 2% by 4%. This means you would expect your option to increase at half the rate of the stock
 
 
Dividend yield

This is the current yield on a stock
. Dividend paying companies have in built bottoms. When the stock prices fall too much their dividend yield becomes attractive enough for existing investors to hold on as well as for new investors to get in. This is a basic criterion for a value investor Stocks that pay dividends are obviously favored over stocks that don't . Dividend paying stocks are likely to fall less in an economic downturn As stock prices fall with no fall in dividends, the dividend yield rises  attracting new investors. Finally, if you do buy a stock for dividend , you should make sure that the company has a history of paying the dividend in both good times and bad. 

 Dividend per share
________________
 Market Price
 
 
Discounted cash flow statement

Discounted Value of free cash flow that a business generates during a particular period of time. 
Companies embarking on a major Capital expenditure program will experience reduced free cash flow and lower valuations. A rise in interest rates increases the cost of capital and also reduces valuations Most of the analyst fraternity uses this concept. The risk free rate is used as the discount rate. This evaluation tool is helpful only for evaluating stable businesses rather then high growth businesses .
 
 
Earning per share (EPS):

This is the
net income divided by the number of shares outstanding however; both the numerator and denominator can change depending on how you define "earnings" and "shares outstanding . The E.PS as an absolute figure means nothing and is significant only when viewed in relation to the price of the stock.

  
      Net Profits  
   _________________          
   No. Of Equity Shares
 
 
Enterprise Value

The sum total of market cap and debt. Enterprise value for cash rich companies is market cap as reduced by cash. During bear markets smart Investors are able to spot a number of companies that are available at zero or negative enterprise value. In 2002 Trent was available at Rs 60 when it had Rs 100 as cash on its balance sheet. The stock has been a multibagger since.

Market Capitalization + Debt
 
 
EVA 

TEconomic Value added is the excess of ROCE over the cost of capital . Companies with higher EVA's are able to generate higher PE's and are generally wealth creators compared to companies that have a low or negative EVA.

(ROCE – Cost of capital) Capital employed
 
 
Free Cash flows
The amount of cash left in a company after all expenditure both revenue and capital has been accounted for. This is also known as the net addition to cash. Free cash flow per share = Cash earnings - capital spending. Companies that generate substantial free cash flows make for very good investments.
 
 
Growth in Stock Price vs. Growth in earnings

A dangerous signal is generated when the stock price of a company increases faster than its earnings. Invariabily this wleads to a  higher PE multiple and makes the stocks liable for decline. Generally it is better to ivest into businesses their earnings growing at an equal pace to their stock prices.
 
 
Inventory Growth vs. Sales

Inventories that are “piling up” and are not sold signal poor business
. If the growth in inventories is greater than the growth in sales, then the company's products are piling up, leading to a potential decline in the price as this information spreads.
 
 
Market Capitalization

The market cap is the amount of money that the acquirer would need to buy back all the outstanding shares . In case of absurd valuations the market cap reaches stupid levels. During the 2000 tech boom Himachal Futuristic sold at a market cap of Rs 20,000 crores .Multibaggers (stocks that go up a number of times) generally have a very small market cap to start with. Companies with a market cap of more then US $ 1 billion are classified as large caps, between US $ 250 million to 1 $billion as mid caps and less then 250 million as small caps. Read the section on market cap argument

Market price x No. Of Equity shares
 
MarketPE

Generally the weighted average of all the 30 stocks in the BSE Sensitive Index is termed as the market PE. The Market PE is inversely related with interest rates. This means that if interest rates go up the market PE contracts and vice versa. Falling interest is a rate is bullish for markets while rising interest rates are a bearish signal.  

                
1
___________________
Risk free rate of return
 
Market Cap to Sales

It is the number of times the sales exceeds the market cap.
For companies in growth businesses the market cap to sales could be about 3 times whereas for companies in low growth businesses it should be equal to 1 .The sales number are the most difficult to fudge and therefore the market cap to sales is a more reliable indicator in corporate analysis. In the 2000 technology bubble Infosys traded at a market cap to sales of more then 100!

Market Cap
___________
      Sales
 
Overpriced stock

There are many ways to indicate an overpriced stock but generally a stock will be categorized as overpriced when its PE would exceed the sustainable growth rate . For instance if Hindustan Lever Ltd (HLL) trades at a PE of 25 and investors expect the company to show an earnings growth of 10% over the next few years the stock would be considered over priced.  Companies in a turnaround mode merit investment even while they have an indefinite PE For small market cap companies and companies that have a lot of inherent value the PE could be less then the growth rate.

PE > sustainable growth rate
 
PEG

This is known as the Price earnings to growth ratio. It should be less then equal to 1 Growth in Earnings vs. the P/E Ratio . The ratio will be lower for slow growers and higher for fast growers. An important indicator that is related to

            PE
________________
Sustainable Growth
 
Percent of Sales

If a company appears attractive because of a particular product, one must see how much that product contributes to the overall sales of the company. If the percentage is low, then even a very successful product will not mean much to the company's bottom line. In the technology boom many people bought L&T and Siemens hoping to make money from their software divisions but their stock prices hardly moved since the weight of software was a very small part of their total sales.
 
 
Price Earnings (PE)

This is one of the most widely used tools in sizing up stocks. Simply put,
it is how much investors are willing to pay for a rupee of the company's earnings. It is also termed as referred to as a "multiple." When you calculate a P/E based on the past year's earnings, the P/E is called "trailing." Another way to determine a P/E is to substitute future earnings projections. This is the "forward" P/E (also referred to as the "anticipated" P/E). Another way of looking at the PE This as the number of years it will take to earn back the initial investment . 
Market price 
____________ 
      EPS
 
Price to BookValue

This is used mainly for Banking (where the book value is adjusted for Non performing assets) and old economy stocks. It is defined as the number of times the market price equals the book value of the stocks.

Market Price
_____________
 Book Value
 
Profit margin

The profit margin after taxes = (Sales - all costs including depreciation, interest and tax) /total sales. As profit margins vary widely across industries, comparing profit margins among different companies make sense only within the same industry or to industry averages. The company that has the highest profit margin is also the lowest cost producer. Margins can be increased either by increasing sales or by decreasing cost . Since Selling price is seldom in the hands of the company it increases margins generally by reducing costs. The company with the largest profit margin will be the company that is most likely to survive in an economic downturn.
 
Return on Equity (RoE)

Return on Equity (RoE) is an
indicator of how efficiently the shareholders funds (Equity) are being used . Companies having a higher RoE tend to be wealth creators and companies having an RoE of less then 15% tend to be wealth destroyers . Normally higher the RoE higher the PE . Companies that are engaged into commodity businesses have lower RoE's compared to the ones that are engaged into high growth businesses. As with the PE Companies that are in the initial stages of growth and are available at small market caps or the ones, which are yet to see the earnings hit a peak, can be bought in spite of having a low RoE. Commodity companies exhibiting very high RoE's are a sign of danger since that would encourage new entrants to rush in and push prices down.

    EPS
_________
Book Value
 
Return on Market Cap

The
percentage that profits that can be earned if an investor buys all the shares from the market. It is theoretically equal to the inverse of the PE (1/PE)
Net Profits
---------------
Market Cap
 
 
Under valued stock

For an
undervalued stock the PE should not exceed the growth rate . For instance if Hindustan Lever Ltd trades at a PE of 25 and investors expect the company to show an earnings growth of 40% over the next few years the stock would be considered under priced. Similarly for companies having inherent value either in terms of cash, property or other hidden assets or companies that have a very small market cap the PE to growth can be ignored .

PE < growth rate

Replies (6)

good yaar,,,,,,,,

Du Pont Analysis.
Return on Equity (RoE) = Net profit margin X Asset turnover X leverage

 

Net profit/ Equity = Return on Asset ( Net profit / Sales X Sales/Fixed Assets ) X Total assets/Equity

RoE = Return on Assets (RoA) X Total Assets/ Equity


 

Breaking the RoE into these three parts allows evaluation of how well the company manages its:

  • Expenses,
  • Assets
  • Debt.

A manager has basically three ways of improving operating performance in terms of Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE). These are:

  • Increase operating profit margins - Control expenses
     
  • Increase capital asset turnover - Increase Asset Productivity
     
  • Change financial leverage - Use debt capital for higher RoE as      long as RoCE is higher then cost of capital.
     

Each of these primary drivers is impacted by the specific decisions on cost control, efficiency productivity, marketing choices etc

Importance of Dupont Analysis

Any decision affecting the product prices, per unit costs, volume or efficiency has an impact on the profit margin or turnover ratios. Similarly any decision affecting the amount and ratio of debt or equity used will affect the financial structure and the overall cost of capital of a company. Therefore, these financial concepts are very important to evaluate as every business is competing for limited capital resources. Understanding the interrelationships among the various ratios such as turnover ratios, leverage, and profitability ratios helps companies to put their money areas where the risk adjusted return is the maximum

Sustainable Advantage – The important tool to shareholder value


General

Physical resources : A steel company should have its own Iron ore mines.

 
Locational advantage : Either the company has to be located closer to its raw material source or the market in which it seeks to operate.
 
 
 
Economies of Scale: WIth increasing capapcity the company generates economies of scale that push down costs even lower.

 
Tariff : Businesses which survive on tariff and protection measures are never unable to create share holder value.

Entry : Buffet called it the ultimate advantage. " If you gave me US $ 100 billion and say take away the soft drink leadership of coca cola in the world I'd give it back and say it cannot be done"
 
 
Cartels: These are agrements amongst sellers not to sell below a certain price or to hold back supplies. Generally the life of cartels is very difficult to envisage and therefore they enjoy lower PE's.

 
Special

Strategy : Managements that follow good long term startegies thinking ahead of the curve are always able to create share holder value.

Technology: Companies that spend on technological upgradation are able to maintain their position in the market. ompare a Hindustan Motors with a Maruti.

Human Capital: This is the most important facet of  business activity. My personal preference is to look for IIT and IIM Graduates in the top level positions.

Culture : Companies that are able to integrate themselves witrh the local culture are able to maintain and generate that sustainable advantage.

 First Mover: Companies that are first mover in their Industries and are able to hold on to that advantage enjoy better multiples and also hold on to their advantage

 
Entrepreneurship and Risk taking
And finally it is the entrepreneur that makes and creates that sustainable advantage.

 

MANAGEMENT FAIR OR FOUL

  • Promoters who keep diluting equity. In Corporate finance studies the cost of equity capital is taken to be higher then that of debt. It therefore makes sense for companies to take on debt for further growth and be very conservative with equity dilution.

     
  • Promoters who issue warrants to themselves at substantial discounts to market price.


     
  • Check whether the company sticks to its guidance . Mastek and Polaris are two Indian software companies that have often deviated from what they promise. While Mastek and Infosys were incorporated at around the same time the latter trades at a market cap of more then 100 times the former.


     
  • Whether the stock price moves just about a fortnight before the unexpected news (e.g. acquisition, hefty dividend etc). Investors will have to distinguish between what is known as mosaic theory. This theory assumes that the analyst committee can forecast some of the corporate actions. Stock specific news that hit the market after the stock has been ramped up is a bad sign indicating that the insiders knew of this development. E Serve and Digital Software were up quite a bit before the company came out with their open offers.


     
  • Companies that buy back their own shares only to reissue them later at huge premiums are again playing foul on small investors. Bharti Airtel did this but investors have benefitted since then. there is nothing easy in this business!

     
  • Companies that buy back their own shares are always a great bet on the bourses

  • Companies having good managements have a large dividend pay out ratio.

  • Decline or rise in promoter holdings. After the 2000 tech debacle the promoter holdings in companies like DSQ Software and Himachal Futuristic saw a continous decline. 

  • A very high Tax Payout Ratio is a signal that earnings are for real and the management genuine.

  • A very large Institutional Ownership means that the company is well researched and prima facie management concerns are not there. But companies that have large institutional ownership do not generate above market returns.

     
  • The CEO position. Whether it is within the family or outside?

  • Educational Qualifications of the top Brass. It has been my personal observation that companies that are headed by graduates from IIM and IIT perform very well. They also follow a very high level of Corporate Governance. Alternatively Companies headed by Accounting professionals are unable to perform that well.

  • Problems in a company are like cockroaches in the kitchen. You will never find just one – Warren Buffet

The Two approaches to investing. It is far easier to follow the Top down approach because it is broader and prominent to identify. For instance if you would have been bullish on IT services you would have made good money buying any of the Indian software stocks.

Top Down

Bottom Up

Economy Check for the GDP growth rate, current account deficit, GDP to market cap ratio, Govt. policies and attitude to reforms, restrictions or ease on foreign capital movements, interest rates, money supply etc..

Markets: Check for the state of trading automated or outcry, the general PE ratio of the market, corporate governance practices and company disclosures, trade settlement and risk management systems etc.

Sectors: Check for the long-term sustainable advantage of that sector, whether that sector is cyclical (cyclicals should never be long term bets) or not, the kind of entry barriers that sector possesses etc.

Company: Check for the PE ratio, the market cap to sales, sustainable growth rate and others. Also see stock computational tools

India – Cross Section of Business opportunities

Emerging Businesses

Retailing
 
Telecom, Internet

Print and Electronic Media

Restaurants

Real Estate

Insurance

Construction
Global Outsourcers

Information Technology

Pharmaceuticals

Engineering
Commodities

Oil

Metals

 
Domestic Demographics

FMCG

Auto (Two wheelers and Four
          wheelers)

Retail Banking


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