The world didn't come to an end in 2012. But the economic gloom that hung heavily over most countries left many wondering if the Mayan prediction almost did come true. Still, every New Year does bring some hope to the horizon, and looking forward to some pleasant surprises might be the best way to step into the new calendar.
1. More Intent & Action from the Government
6.5% GDP growth likely in FY14
Reform measures intended to revive investment will hopefully lay the groundwork for faster growth in the years ahead. The year is likely to close to with GDP growth below 6%. The next year, FY14, will at best see a minor rebound, but no one is predicting a number greater than 6.5%, a far cry from 9% a few years ago.
2. Early Signs of Global Pick-up
3.6% IMF'S 2013 est. Growth for world economy, against 3.3% in 2012
Recent economic indicators point to the US economy expanding in 2013. In China, manufacturing expanded at its fastest in 19 months. Europe has avoided the worst possible outcome.
3. Interest Rates will Come Down
Finally 50-70 basis points rate cut likely in 2013
Some of the pre-conditions for a rate cut - lower rate of price increases and a decline in fi scal defi cit - are emerging. The magnitude of decline in interest rates will depend on crude oil and other commodity prices remaining stable, or falling.
4. Markets to be Upbeat
Markets will maintain their momentum, but it will depend on a reversal of the interest rate cycle, infl ation and a good monsoon. With the US and Europe likely to be in slow growth and low interest rates, accelerating fund fl ows into emerging markets, including India, will help. The downside? Any more political turmoil and a second monsoon failure.
5. IPO market will look up
50-100% Growth in IPO fund raising likely in 2013
More cos will roll out IPOs, but with a modest issue price. Also expect government disinvestment, debt-ridden cos issuing shares to qualifi ed institutional investors and mandatory issue of shares to pare promoter ownership in listed fi rms to 75%.
THANKS FOR READING MY ARTICLE
Regards,
RAJESH CHOUDHARY
Source : https://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-01-01/news/36094145_1_interest-rates-gdp-growth-ipo-market
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