| The Goldman Sachs report on BRICs |
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Over the next 50 years, Brazil, Russia, India and China—the BRICs economies—could become a much larger force in the world economy.
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The results are startling. If things go right, in less than 40 years, the BRICs economies together could be larger than theG6 (US, U.K, Japan, Germany France and Canada) in US dollar terms. By 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6. Currently they are worth less than 15%. Of the current G6, only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050.
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About two-thirds of the increase in US dollar GDP from the BRICs should come from higher real growth, with the balance through currency appreciation. The BRICs’ real exchange rates could appreciate by up to 300% over the next 50 years (an average of 2.5% a year). That means that the US dollar could move downwards from RS 43 to a rupee to around Rs 15
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The shift in GDP relative to the G6 takes place steadily over the period, but is most dramatic in the first 30 years. Growth for the BRICs is likely to slow significantly toward the end of the period, with only India seeing growth rates significantly above 3% by 2050. And individuals in the BRICs are still likely to be poorer on average than individuals in the G6 economies, with the exception of Russia. China’s per capita income could be roughly what the developed economies are now (about US$30,000 per capita).
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As early as 2009, the annual increase in US dollar spending from the BRICs could be greater than that from, the G6 and more than twice as much in dollar terms as it is now. By 2025 the annual increase in US dollar spending from the BRICs could be twice that of the G6, and four times higher by 2050. (Look out for companies that benefit from an increase in spending power)
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The key assumption underlying the projections is that the BRICs maintain policies and develop institutions that are supportive of growth. Each of the BRICs faces significant challenges in keeping development on track. This means that there is a good chance that our projections are not met, either through bad policy or bad luck. But if the BRICs come anywhere close to meeting the projections set out here, the implications for the pattern of growth and economic activity could be large.
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The relative importance of the BRICs as an engine of new demand growth and spending power may shift more dramatically and quickly than expected. Higher growth in these economies could offset the impact of graying (old age) populations and slower growth in the advanced economies.
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Higher growth may lead to higher returns and increased demand for capital. The weight of the BRICs in investment portfolios could rise sharply. BRIC countries could experience greater capital inflows. This would generate major exchange rate changes.
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Rising incomes may also see these economies move towards growth for different kinds of products, as local spending patterns change. This could be an important determinant of demand and pricing patterns for a range of commodities.
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As today’s advanced economies share in global output starts getting smaller, the accompanying shifts in spending could provide significant opportunities for global companies. Being invested in and involved in the right markets—particularly the right emerging markets—may become an increasingly important strategic choice.
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The list of the world’s ten largest economies may look quite different in 2050. The largest economies in the world (by GDP) may no longer be the richest (by income per capita).
| Projected US$ GDP Levels |
| 2003 US $ billion |
Brazil |
China |
India |
Russia |
| 2000 |
762 |
1078 |
469 |
391 |
| 2010 |
668 |
2998 |
929 |
847 |
| 2020 |
1333 |
7070 |
2104 |
1741 |
| 2030 |
2189 |
14312 |
4935 |
2980 |
| 2040 |
3740 |
26439 |
12367 |
4467 |
| 2050 |
6074 |
44453 |
27803 |
5870 |
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Brazil: Over the next 50 years, Brazil's GDP growth rate averages 3.6%. The size of Brazil's economy overtakes Italy by 2025; France by 2031; UK and Germany by 2036.
China : China's GDP growth rate falls to 5% in 2020 from its 8.1% growth rate projected for 2003. By the mid-2040s, growth slows to around 3.5%. Even so, high investment rates, a large labor force and steady convergence would mean China becomes the world's largest economy by 2041.
India. While growth in the G6, Brazil, Russia and China is expected to slow significantly over the next 50 years, India's growth rate remains above 5% throughout the period. India's GDP outstrips that of Japan by 2032. With the only population out of the BRICS that continues to grow throughout the next 50 years, India has the potential to raise its US dollar income per capita in 2050 to 35 times current levels. Still, India's income per capita will be significantly lower than any of the countries we look at.
Russia: Russia's growth projections are hampered by a shrinking population (an assumption that may be too negative). But strong convergence rates work to Russia's benefit and by 2050; the country's GDP per capita is by far the highest in the group, and comparable to the G6.Russia's economy overtakes Italy in 2018; France in 2024;UK in 2027 and Germany in 2028
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