sir,
i am publishing a book on 'demonetization'; one chaprter i will add; it is a critique...based upon my perceptions.
Modi-Economics ideas - tenable in 21st century India?
BALAKRISHNAN GURUMURTI·WEDNESDAY, 28 DECEMBER 2016
‘Modi economics’ perception and real monetary economics to deflect black moneys, are two different roads!
By Dr.Guru Balakrishnan
Economics roads are 360 degree type USA type ‘Turn Pike’ roads on the Longitude dynamics and Latitudinal dynamics of any Economy;
Monetary economics is man devised one idea only; so it is not based on ‘facts’ based but ‘some imagination’ based perception to meaningfully sustain living paradigm, as ‘barter idea’ is most difficult to sustain ever is the perception that led to find a some simple and easy mechanism, based on some imaginative perception only;
That led to the idea of Monetary economics, as some ‘holistic mechanism’;
It is like the story of which perturbed the ‘Divines and Men’ that lead to a discussion chaired by Hindu demi-god ‘Indira’ a contention called by ‘Sanyasis ‘and ‘normal men leading married life’ wherein they were to discuss, whether running away from ‘leading normal married life’ is a wise option like ‘sanyasi (saint)’; or to continue living a married life of a house holder;
In this, each side started expressing its way of living is great; one deva guru in Bhrihaspathi (high priest of demi gods, and Lord gods) said , ‘leading sanyasi (life of giving up every thing right from pleasre and pelf etc is the ‘best way’ as the sanyasi (saint) always thinks of God (Lord) ever;
Brihaspathi preference of ‘saintly’ life annoyed the chair held by demi-god ‘Indira’, so he gave a ‘curse’ to the Lord priest -’Brihaspathi’ - that the ‘priest shall take next form of life of ordinary human, and face life problems’;
In this, each side started expressing its way of living is great; one deva guru in Bhrihaspathi (high priest of demi gods, gods) said , ‘leading sanyasi (life of giving up every thing right from pleasre and pelf etc is the best way as the sanyasi (saint) always thinks of God (Lord) ever;
sanyasi (life of giving up every thing right from pleasre and pelf etc is the best way as the sanyasi (saint) always thinks of God (Lord) ever
Accordingly , the Priest is born as a family man, finding it difficult to run his family and meet its daily needs; he has to go without food and face ‘hunger’; even small ‘morsel of food’ could satisfy his hunger; that way he got very small morsel of food;
He redied himself to eat tat ‘morsel’ of food; when some stray dog tried to snatch his small morsel of food; but he tried to drive it away; then that ‘stray dog’ recalls his past; he also in his past drove away a ‘dog’ that wanted to get his small morsel of food; the stray dog cursed this man , he could know the meaning of living, if he were to be a ‘stray dog’ himself; like that he took the form of ‘this stray dog’; this stray dog (godly by its power of ‘faithfulness trait) , the priest in the form of man if he is to be born like him stray dog he would understand the ‘rule of life’ and the role of life’;
Disturbed by this situation, the priest (in the form of man) goes to a sacred place called ‘Kanchipuram’ to pray the ‘creation god (Bhramah) to pray salvation to him as he is fed up with the life; hearing him, Brammah told him pray to preserving God called ‘Vishnu’, who might give some ‘relief’ (‘salvation’) from his ‘problems’ of life of a man on the earth who has to fend his life daily by facing all kinds of pains to get small pleasure of getting ‘food’ - a potion that urges in man to seek other pleasures of life;
In the meantime , in the heavens, the demi-gods could not perform their daily prayers without their divine ‘guru’ (priest - Brihaspati) ; that led the demi-gods and his divine persons sought some relief by getting back their ‘divine priest ‘ languishing n earth in a life of a ‘family man’ - (man with progeny - children and facing all other attendant problems);
In this, each side started expressing its way of living is great; one deva guru in Bhrihaspathi (high priest of demi gods, gods) said , ‘leading sanyasi (life of giving up every thing right from pleasre and pelf etc is the best way as the sanyasi (saint) always thinks of God (Lord) ever
Now all these persons assembled to pray on the advice of creator god called ‘Bhrammah’ Lord ‘preserver’ called ‘Mahavishnu’;
They all prayed, then Lord Preserver (Mahavishnu) landed and said ,’None can escape the ‘Living cycles’ of birth and death with combination of ‘pain and pleasure’ cycles; this cycle is always perpetual, so none can ever escape, and restored all to their earlier positions in their life, to see , to develop a character of life that is destined to every one, as no one can escape the law of cycles of life’;
This story narrates, whatever it is, ‘Never try any easy path’ that is not possible for any; even to Lord Gods;
That way only, the Monetary economics came into active consideration by Maynard Keyniasian ideas, after he published ‘General Economic Theory and Money’ ;
His theory came into being because scarce ‘yellow metal’ (Gold) based monetary economics hitherto being followed now outlived to the new demand of man.
Then scarce ‘White metal (silver) came into being;
Then Copper follwed; that waythe Kings and chieftains tried to contain the needs of man, as ‘Barter‘ (exchage of things) cannot ever meet the ever increasing demands of man;
The ‘Paper currency ‘ idea was a very fast move, as the Kings did not look into other forms of ‘metals’; for that is the serious problem, (due to ever increasing demands of man);
one needs to note, as man had several kinds of metals;yet cannot meet his ever spinging demands;
Thus, Lord Keynes fast moved into ‘paper’ idea of currency as a monetary tool-mechanism;
that served the very urgent needs of war, after all ‘paper’ as such cannot have any intrinsic value except very lowest value of toilet paper;
So , he conceived the idea of ‘Sovereign Promise’ signed on behalf of Sovereign by specially dedicated instrument called a Governor’ for that purpose;
His idea was to meet the urgent needs of the economy; but after war too continued in peace establishment of any State as such; so every where in every country in every continent, we have this great paper concept perpetuating, for its convenience of carry-ability in hand bag or wallets and the like, that is being followed by ‘Plastic cards’ like Master and Visa cards, representing ‘credit cards ‘ or ‘debit cards’ issued by bankers, all over the word;
In fact, why you need money at all?
You need just to buy some things like materials, or vegetables, or some roots, some grains and the like as man has to sustain the need of food, clothing and shelter, more than any luxury;
Luxury generally gone ‘for once essential needs are met, largely by your real finances, under ‘solvency ‘ ideas;
that is, ‘None took to the route of ‘loans’ from any sources;
As luxury ever increasing demands led you to ‘loan’ instruments , now you service even for 20 long years, by paying fluctuating interest rates, you choose to pay under various loan schemes floated mainly be banks, followed by ‘chit funds’, and the like;
Paper currency literally ‘boosted the idea of loans and lending’, at some interest rates basis, and so on;
that means man started out living of his very means, himself;
When, you ‘live off the means’, then the problem of living arise, always;
Paper currency when Mr Maynard Keynes did create, during world war, and seeing its ability to meet the war needs ;
he felt it is the best possible method for man;
so he advised president Roosevelt to go for paper currency in 1930s depression; but the president of the USA rejected that idea as a great ‘Nonsense’ ; and he discounted that Keynes idea;
In fact Paper money idea though some ‘fast relief’ kind; but, yet, it is a most unreliable idea for anyone is one school of thought;
Therefore, you need to very carefully tread the road of Paper money;
if you fail any end, you might face very serious fall in country’s economy;
so in 1920s, the idea of RBI (Reserve Bank of India ) idea surfaced,
as the governments are not equipped with the money management concepts;
that all the Governments ‘strictly followed’ for their mindless interferrance might cause ‘serious problems’ to the general public;
that way ‘monetary management’ was solely entrusted to the instrument called ‘the RBI’, in India; likewise to the Bank of England in Britain;
The idea of paper money caught the imagination of a lot of governments including the USA sometime after President Roosevelt presidency;
that way Federal Reserve idea caught up in the very USA, as the most prominent institution to manage ‘paper currency’, as such, there is Dollar $ bills, after, the Pound bills in the UK (former Britain);
Likewise, Euros and others surfaced, all over the world;
Any way ‘paper currency’ as such cannot satisfy any surging needs of any economy, if the needs are not really sustainable;
Needs are always ‘uncontrollable’ products; as needs are always ever increasing day by day, in geometrical progressions, as per your own imagination;
‘Needs always created by Governments’, more than the very consumer himself; consumer is enthused by very governments;
That way, idea of economic growth surged from Governments; more than by the very user (consumer himself) as such;
The Governments mooted ‘Consumption Economics’, as a tool of ‘jobs creator and generator’, for the people;
Jobs are needed to earn some living;
if no jobs and if people are idle, how will you provide food for surging millions, is a thought process of the governance as such;
Jobs are created ‘per se’ your imagination, as a tool, how to attract one to something supposed to be useful as such;
Man by nature is essentially ‘greedy creature’, among all ‘Animals’ on the earth;
His behavior of ‘needs, needs, needs’, ever increasing needs is the ‘cause of all problems’ , the man is facing today;
In Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden, God saw the Man in Adam and Eve, that these persons would not like to live a ‘controlled life and living’; so they cannot be held down even by proving all the reasonable ‘good’ things of living like in ‘Paradise’;His greed annoyed God (per christian ethics of ‘Garden of Eden’; so He chose to throw this set of first people is the Christian theological perception based upon biblical scripttture;
In fact, the kins of this set of people number went on increasing day by day,soon in ‘geometrical progressions, that way we are all today now;
That way our governments are made, is the factual history of man as such;
This Man, is a ‘Welter of Confusion’, he will ever look for some needs always, as if he never will die - thinking he is some ‘Eternal Being’ of Immortality;
In fact, man dies, but he procreates his eternal ‘likes’ (progeny inherits), always, again and again, that way he developed his own progeny, some generations and so on;
besides he got into some greed called ‘religions’, some ‘castes or creeds’, and so on;
The problems multiplied in geometrical progressions progressed from arithmetical progressions initially;
He became the worst ‘Greedy’ person on earth, as his own enemy No.1;
He conceived every new needs,every now and then, whether really required or not;
Greed ate into him ;
He always wanted something or other new, always;
It is like ‘insatiable appetite’, he has for anything always;
Money in paper form (now in debit cards and credit cards), as an instrument controlled him that is the basic transition from controlled life and living;
so God also disowned him in the Garden of Eden story;
Life is a mechanism that needs some regulatory mechanism, not some ‘slipshod’ moments or movements is the fact of living as such;
But man by nature is most ‘incorrigible’ creature , macinated by the tool of ‘greeds’ , ‘fascination’ ‘dreams’ of any kinds, any God would say;
‘Greed’ rules over this man ever everlastingly; He even runs to temples, churches, mosques and so on under his own religious dispensation;
He may be educated, but he is not educated is the ‘real fact’, as he learns
‘Big Nothing’, in his life,is the fact of this creation of great ‘Man’, as such;
Learning is always a ‘Must’, but this Man learns Nothing from his own life Experience as such;
Experience is the master teacher to Man;
but he doesn’t care of Experience as such, that way God knows that this man can never learn, though we have great ideas as ‘cat’s paw’ on a fire story; but cat may not this man, for cats are much better than this man;
Money is one stuff that is like ‘rolling stones’ like;
See, in Monetary economics we introduced today some ‘paper money’ plastic moneys, obviously; you need to be, knowing of facts of life;
Money is some imaginary greed based perception, by some ideas called imagination;
Money is a some kind of smooth mechanism, anticipated, as such, to enable ‘sensible’ things to happen;
But, without sensible control, on paper Money,;
every action by any authority is just some ‘arbitrary’ behavior, be it CM, PM or the President of the country;
In such circumstance, we need to know , the what is ‘demonetization’ idea as such;
One needs to know what economists perceive, as follows:
What economists call game theory psychologists call the theory of social situations, which is an accurate descriptttion of what game theory is about.
Although game theory is relevant to parlor games such as poker or bridge, most research in game theory focuses on how groups of people interact.
There are two main branches of game theory: cooperative and noncooperative game theory.
Noncooperative game theory deals largely with how intelligent individuals interact with one another in an effort to achieve their own goals. That is the branch of game theory I will discuss here.
In addition to game theory, economic theory has three other main branches: decision theory, general equilibrium theory and mechanism design theory. All are closely connected to game theory.
Decision theory can be viewed as a theory of one person games, or a game of a single player against nature. The focus is on preferences and the formation of beliefs. The most widely used form of decision theory argues that preferences among risky alternatives can be described by the maximization of the expected value of a numerical utility function, where utility may depend on a number of things, but in situations of interest to economists often depends on money income. Probability theory is heavily used in order to represent the uncertainty of outcomes, and Bayes Law is frequently used to model the way in which new information is used to revise beliefs. Decision theory is often used in the form of decision analysis, which shows how best to acquire information before making a decision.
General equilibrium theory can be viewed as a specialized branch of game theory that deals with trade and production, and typically with a relatively large number of individual consumers and producers. It is widely used in the macroeconomic analysis of broad based economic policies such as monetary or tax policy, in finance to analyze stock markets, to study interest and exchange rates and other prices. In recent years, political economy has emerged as a combination of general equilibrium theory and game theory in which the private sector of the economy is modeled by general equilibrium theory, while voting behavior and the incentive of governments is analyzed using game theory. Issues studied include tax policy, trade policy, and the role of international trade agreements such as the European Union.
Mechanism design theory differs from game theory in that game theory takes the rules of the game as given, while mechanism design theory asks about the consequences of different types of rules. Naturally this relies heavily on game theory. Questions addressed by mechanism design theory include the design of compensation and wage agreements that effectively spread risk while maintaining incentives, and the design of auctions to maximize revenue, or achieve other goals.
Theory of social situations entered in ‘Monetary economics ideas’ that way Keynes gave out his general economic theory to pump up jobs as such on some imaginary kinds of jobs; that ois over played by politicians every where; unlike the Monarchs in the past;
Monarchs too fell into incorrigible imagimations - by allowing ‘gem stones’, ‘silk clothes’, ‘spices’ ‘jewellery’, ‘travels and tourism’ , and so on, that wa ‘psychology based theory of social perceptions’ surfaced;
Again we have ‘cooperative’ and non-cooperative ‘game theory’;
Non cooperative game theory is the product of how intelligent and clever men use the ‘game theory’;
For example , if your clever son tries to take away some cash from his parents, is also a game theory based ideas;
For example, your son calls you from say America where you went to satay away from that clever son; he tells his mother, ‘ I am caught in a ‘credit card’ non payment problems and i had issued a dud cheque but the credit card company sues me that i may be sent to jail; so please help me with some funds, i will repay you sooner I recover my income;
that poor mother, convinces his father to help, and the son plays another card, ‘you people can stay with me i will take care of you both’,
that way the old parents are caught in the web played by the non cooperative son by his ‘game playing’ as he is in a very serious problem of credit cards non payments;
he again says, his wife is not helping him out, as she doesn’t want to save him from going to jail.
Poor parents trust and land there in his house (practically owned by his wife let us say) and they tend to help him.
First few months he he is cool with his parents;
obviously he plays well with parents’ psychology of protecting the children; as parents always have a very soft corner for their own children, that is called ‘ a psychological social situation’ dynamics, every family faces.
The crook in son after a few months, threatens his parents, you better go back to ‘America’, unless you foot all my bills and even serve me as a ‘help’ at home;
that is the real problem the parents spent all their savings for his comfort believing he will take care of them; but obviously they are in the ‘lurch’;
Like that non cooperative son plays ‘game theory’ on his parent;
that is how the ‘black money concepts’ surfaced, as he (son) cheats his genuine parents - the ‘economy’ :
Fact is ‘crooks’ ever try to live at the cost of genuine people;
War is caused by ‘crooks’ only;
so all Wars are called ‘deception’ by greneral Sunyat sen;
as ‘crooks’ in large numbers try to take control of the countries finances;
in such a situation the genuine robust countries face ‘irredeemable situations’;
in such situations, countries try to use some ‘instruments of cash’ i.e called ‘paper money’;
in that way Maynard keynes used his general theory of employment; that is, he ‘employs’ the instrument of ‘paper currency’;
That theory can serve only a short period of war; not perpetrually, if demands grow perpetually; that leads to initially ‘inflation’, soon thereafter, into ‘Stagflation’ - very difficult to sustain, that way ‘black moneys ‘ do act; need to be curbed, how is the million(now call it trillions) $ question, to any country.
for any currency to be stable it has to have some hard material backing’ is needed; ‘paper’ alone cannot be any big backing at all;
Without ‘material backing’ paper currency cannot be of sane use, just a tolet paper like - like your ‘son is equally turns into a toilet paper’ ;
Always , clever non cooperative people tend to cheat - for example all kinds of businessmen except a very few only;
so too all politicians too , till they get your votes to rule them, thereafter they are like your great son, they will throw you out of the house (some safe living circumstance) some how;
Your safe home is genuine economy - some one to take care of you (people);
The game theory is played by very clever people like ‘your incorrigible son, or incorrigible politician, incorrigible trader or business man;
these may be a few compared to the population strength of a Nation;
but these ‘non-cooperative game players’ are always DANGEROUS to any Nation -
after all ‘Nations are of mostly good people’;
but a few non cooperative people are good enough to cause innumerable problems to the majority of people - like terrorists (says in Syria, and elsewhere;
‘bad politicians’ like ‘bad sons (children)’ would ‘hamper’, the apple cart of life as such);
Here I tried to explain by some analogy, how a bad non cooperative son becomes your own fellow would stoop to do anything just to save himself, say he might harm you; so too bad politicians would hamper the economy as such;
You could have seen recently in Bangalore (Karnataka), one Janardhana reddy (BJP Party member) performed 500 crores worth expend marriage of his daughter, at whose cost, obviously at the cost of your economy only;
You could have seen several such persons surfacing today after great some sudden so called ‘strategy’ strike Modi calls his ‘ Demonetization’ suddenly surfaced, on November 8th 2016; (indeed non cooperative game theory in fact)
But like your great ‘bad son’ (playing like sheep in wolf’s garb);
these politicians always play sheep in the garb of wolves to devour you;
by twisting the psychology based ‘new situations’;
see poor man stands at ATMs ‘reeling of to die’, and return home without money ;
but these politicians get all cash whatever they needed;
How intelligent people interact with each other is the mechanism of ‘Game Theory’;
Indeed Modi is a clever man ; but I doubt whether he is an ‘genuine intelligent man’ had he been he would have had sagacity ; I doubt whether he was sagacious?
If a man of sagacity , he would have done another Jayalalitha like on Nov 8th;as she opened some ‘Amma canteens’ for all poor!
‘see there was one Emperor Ashoka, one Emperor Vikramaditya, one Emperor in Akbar, one Governor general Lord william Bentinck, one Lord Cornwallis, one ‘Krishna Deva Roya’, one Raja Raja cholan , one Pandian, so there is one smt. Indira Gandhi, so too one Ms. J.Jayalalitha in whole of India,
so her own detractors really praised her at her death bed, why when Karnataka CM ‘Siddharamayya’ came to pay respects to her, so president Mukherjee and PM Modi came to pay their respects to her obviously proves the fact; so it is next to impossible to get another JJ in TN or whole of india for she really outsmarted in administrative management in political governance of any state.
that JJ was a super sagacious woman to rule TN.
Indeed she deserves Bharat Ratna award(awards or no awards she was great;)
if there is a will in Indians to confer, not because OPS or shashikala wanted’
(to be continued) Part 1 ends,
(this is a part of my pre publication book ‘A critique on ‘Modi-Demonetization’ - ‘a toxic decision of Modi’ ...what would be the effects sooner one can find.’ book will be released by end 2017 in the USA’ - pre publication price U S $.300,-)(interested can register by paying the amount by credit/debit cards..)
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