Excise calculation on exemption on year end

Sir,

When you reached the sale Rs. 1.5 crore you are liable to pay Excise Duty and you also eligible taken the Cenvat credit on Inputs.

Stock Matter

Make the Stock statement as per Input purchased and consumed by you on finished goods when you reached the above said sale. No credit admissible, when you are eligible pay to Excise duty.

Further, when you are eligible to pay excise duty on finished goods also you can taken the cenvat credit on inputs which are involved in finished goods. And its process to be continue taken the credit and reverse every financial year.

If further any queries plz forward the same

ok basically question is for this march end. since i have 20 lacs goods in stock either as raw material or finished goods. now lets say excise on this good is approx 2.5 lacs. total input of excise was say 10lac for this quater which include the 2.5 lacs of finished goods. now consider two possibilities. 

1. lets say total  output excise as of now is 9 lacs. which is already under 10 lacs. 

2. output excise is 11 lacs, in this case i have to pay 1 lacs for sure, what about the stock in hand. will that 2.5 will be charged as payable. 

few addition to my last post, i will be going to take exception of 1.5 cr on excise duty from this april so from april there will be no concept of input and output. so i want understand from above two scenaio how much do i have to pay and if there will be any excise input carried forward to april 2014

to explain my question in better way take these two scenario, 

1. i have no raw material balanec in stock on march 31.

2. i have some raw material in stock on march 31.  text in blue background is the excise duty on raw material which in stock. and red colored text is excise calculation based on total input and total output