Doubt regarding multiple binomial model

Please explain how to calculate the prob of price limits of FP1 and FP2 in the following Multiple Step Binomial Model problem

 

 Q) A stock is currently priced at Rs50. It is known that in the first 6 months of current year from now prices will either rise by 20% or go down by 20%, further in the later half of the year prices may again go up by 20% or go down by 20% in the second step. Suppose risk free interest rate is 5% continuous compounding and strike rate is Rs52. Calculate value of European Put Option.

( my doubt is only regarding the computation of probabilities of price limits for each step--in the exercise it is shown as FP1=0.50 and FP2=0.50. However using the formula:  Probability of lower price limit = (u-f)/(u-d) and Probability of higher price limit = f-d/u-d the probabilities are different that what is shown in the exercise i.e 0.50.)

 

Regards John John

 

Replies (2)

The value of up prob should be 50 * e(.05*.5) - 40/(60-40) = .563

therefore the value of down would be .437

 

Using these apply the probability rates and find the value of the option.

Hopefuly this helps.

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