Looks like CPM is close to Budgeting, doesnt it?
| Activity | Critical Path Method Budget - Deterministic method | Days Most likely (M) | Actual work Completed | Project cost (Days * Costs) | Stage of completion % | ||||||||
| A | Purchasing material and warehousing at site | 7 | ✓ | 3,00,000 | 20% | ||||||||
| B | Bulldozing to prepare constructing foundation | 3 | ✓ | 50,000 | 3% | ||||||||
| C | Laying foundation | 15 | ✓ | 100000 | 7% | ||||||||
| D | Foundation watering time | 15 | ✓ | 20000 | 1% | ||||||||
| E | 1st tower layer | 10 | ✓ | 300000 | 20% | ||||||||
| F | 2nd tower layer | 10 | ✓ | 300000 | 20% | ||||||||
| G | Final tower layer and installing satellite equipment | 12 | ✓ | 400000 | 27% | ||||||||
| Total Estimations | 72 | 14,70,000 | 100% | ||||||||||
| Project evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) - Probability model | Optimistic (O) | Most likely (M) | Pessimistic (P) | PERT Estimates = (O+4M+P)/6 | Sigma (P-O/6) | Pert variance | |||||||
| A | Purchasing material and warehousing at site | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | ||||||
| B | Bulldozing to prepare constructing foundation | 2 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | ||||||
| C | Laying foundation | 10 | 15 | 25 | 17 | 2.5 | 6.3 | ||||||
| D | Foundation watering time | 10 | 15 | 30 | 21 | 3.3 | 11.1 | ||||||
| E | 1st tower layer | 7 | 10 | 20 | 12 | 2.2 | 4.7 | ||||||
| F | 2nd tower layer | 7 | 10 | 20 | 12 | 2.2 | 4.7 | ||||||
| G | Final tower layer and installing satellite equipment | 9 | 12 | 20 | 13 | 1.8 | 3.4 | ||||||
| Total | 101 | 14 | 32 | ||||||||||
| STANDARD DEVIATION= | 3.7 | days | |||||||||||
| Probability of completing project in 102 days= 102-101/SD | 0.268866 | ||||||||||||
| Using Z- Table, 0.27= 99.6% probability that work can be completed in 102 days | |||||||||||||
| Probability of completing the work in 72 days= 72-101/SD | -7.79713 | ||||||||||||
| Using Z- Table, -7.79713 = 0.832 | |||||||||||||
| So, | 1-0.832= | 0.168 | or 16.80% probability that work will be completed in 72 days | ||||||||||
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