Forex part 4

Final 3752 views 13 replies

After considering the concept of risk management , let move on to other concepts :-

  1. Forward exchange rate contracts :-   it means buying or selling a currency at the price fixed today for future transaction.  As the time span increases, bid-ask spread also get wider.

Example: - A person buys goods worth 100$ . Now the person is conscious about the rising prices of $. He would buy the dollar at Rs.48 as per forward contract. And he can settle his transaction at this rate no matter whatever the current rate going in the market. Even if $ is 53 or something, he still have to pay Rs.48 for the same. And if Rupee appreciates, and say $=45, then even he has to accomplish the contract @ 48. 

 

  1. Honor, rollover or cancel :- forward contract :-
  1. Honor: - it simply means that the person has accepted the obligation or receipt as per the contract. There is no need to do anything about the same.
  2. Early honor: - Means you want to close the transaction today. So in case you are an exporter, you have already taken the contract to sell the foreign currency. So at today you’ll sell the currency on spot market (coz you wished to do so.) and you’ll take another buy contract for the forward rate contract date to cancel the above obligation.

 

Example: - you have to receive 50$ at 1$= Rs.50. Now suppose the rate today is 1$= 55.And say forward rate for $=50. You’ll surely choose the option of early honor and would earn the benefit of Rs.2 per $. And then you have to take another contract to cancel the earlier transaction.

  1. Roll over: - In this contract the person wants to receive or pay at a later date. The person can choose this option at the due date or before the due date.

At due date :-  he’ll take 2 contracts. The first would be to cancel the already taken contract. And then second would be the forward contract.

 

Before due date :-  the person would get into 2 forward contract. Suppose, a person need to pay on 30the august. Now, the person realizes on 10the august that his financial position is weak and  wants to pay  his debt on 1 Sept. So what should  he do :-

  1.  Buy ki jagah sell ka contract lega for 30th aug.
  2. Due date means 1sep ka forward buy ka contract lega. Simple !

 

  1. Money market hedge :-   money market is a market for short term instruments. Its term may be overnight to a year. The money market is an approach to avoid foreign currency exchange. A person creates a simultaneous asset or liability as per his position. Let’s illustrate with an example :-

 

A person has to receive 52000$ from an American customer after 6 months. And interest rates are :-

 

USA :- 8% p.a.

India :- 10% p.a.

Spot Rate :- $ 1 = Rs.40

 

Receipt :- 52000 $ . It’s an asset so he will invest the same amount at present value in his home country. So first he has to take a loan, ( paisa kahan se aayega invest karne ke liye :O )

 

So loan will be taken from the same country the person is going to receive the money i.e. America.

 

Raising a loan =Amount receivable / (1+ periodic rate of interest)

 

= $ 52000/ (1+.08*6/12)

                                      = $ 50,000

He will take the loan of $50000. And, he would invest the same amount in India at prevailing spot rate.

Means , 50000*40 = 20 lakh

Deposit the same money in india for 6 months @ 10% . And it’d be equal to 21 lakhs.

So, the total receipt under MMO is 21 lakhs. The loan amount would be cancelled by the actual receipt on the due date respectively.

 

Regards

Renu

Replies (13)

The discussion time would be 10PM  @ wishtruly .

And on wednesday, I'd be preparing for ISCA chapter 1. 

If anyone has any doubt regarding forex ... please let me know.

 

You can check earlier parts by clicking on this link  @

Good going Renu!yes

Dear Renu,

You are awesome. Your articles are just you know precise and educational.

I am CA Finalist student preparing for my coming exam and I am referring to SD Bala and Makkar sir notes. However there are not all questions answered in makkar sir notes. I searched for the answer in suggested and other books available. It would be very kind if you would help me. I have also written my answer but I don't think it is correct.

Question no. 71 Page G19 of Makkar

An Indian Company obtains the following quotes ( Rs. / $)

Spot                              35.90 / 36.10

3 month forward         36.00 / 36.25

6 month forward         36.10 / 36.40

3 months interest rates   - Rs - 12 % / $ - 6 %

6 months interest rates  - Rs. 11.5 % . $ - 5.5 %

Determine what should be 3-months interest rates after 3 months to make the compant indifferent between three-month borrowing and six-month borrowing in the case of

(a) Rupee Borrowing   (b) Dollor Borrowing

Forward rate of 3 months - 36.10 x (1+0.12x3/12) / ( 1 + 0.06 x 3/12 ) = 36.64

To be indifferent , forward rate of 3 months and 6 months should be equal

so 36.64 = 36.10 x (1 + Rs. interest rate /2 ) / (1 + 0.055 /2 )

Therefore, Rs. interest rate = 8.63 %

@ Deep question has been solved by IRPT  method :-

 (1+rh)/(1+rf) = Forward/Spot

(1+.12*3/12)/(1+.06*3/12)  = F/36.10

Forward Rate = 36.10*1.03 /1.015

FR = 36.634

So in approx  FR = 36.64

 

now after getting the forward rate, the interest rate should be same as 6 months interest rate ...hence :-

applying the same formula again :-

36.64/36.10  = ( 1+ interest rate*6/12) / (1+.055*6/12)

interest rate = {(1.014*1.0275)-1}/2

r = .08377

r= 8.37 %

due to approximation answers are bit different.

now in 2nd part the same method been adopted.

Assumption that india is our home currency and $ is our foreign currency.

we would calculate the rate of interest for $  after 6 months . And India's interest rate would be same one.

Renu, Thanks for your time to reply. It was generous.

Answer I had written ( and you further explained ) was done in class but I am not sure it is correct. I am confused with 3-months interest rates after 3 months. DOesn't it mean "interest rate between 3 months from now and 6 months that equals 3 month borrowing and 6 month borrowing. Basically my attempt ( 4th one ha ha ) is 3-4 months from now. What I am doing is writing makkar sir notes in my own handwriting serially for exam preparation.

There are also few similar question asked in exam like SFM May 2010

Question No. 5 (b) 3-months interest rates after 3 months The following market data is available: Spot USD/JPY 116.00 Deposit rates p.a. USD JPY 3 months 4.50% 0.25% 6 months 5.00% 0.25% Forward Rate Agreement (FRA) for Yen is Nil. 1. What should be 3 months FRA rate at 3 months forward? 2. The 6 & 12 months LIBORS are 5% & 6.5% respectively. A bank is quoting 6/12 USD FRA at 6.50 – 6.75%. Is any arbitrage opportunity available? Calculate profit in such case. (8 Marks) (May 2010)

Answer 1. 3 Months Interest rate is 4.50% & 6 Months Interest rate is 5% p.a. Future Value 6 Months from now is a product of Future Value 3 Months now & 3 Months Future Value from after 3 Months. (1+0.05*6/12) =(1+0.045*3/12) x (1+i3,6 *3/12) i3,6 = [(1+0.05* 6/12) /(1+0.045 *3/12) – 1] *12/3 i.e. 5.44% p.a. 2. 6 Months Interest rate is 5% p.a & 12 Month interest rate is 6.5% p.a. Future value 12 month from now is a product of Future value 6 Months from now and 6 Months Future value from after 6 Months. (1+0.065) = (1+0.05*6/12) x (1+i6,6 *6/12) i6,6 = [(1+0.065/1.025) – 1] *12/6 6 Months forward 6 month rate is 7.80% p.a. The Bank is quoting 6/12 USD FRA at 6.50 – 6.75% Therefore there is an arbitrage Opportunity of earning interest @ 7.80% p.a. & Paying @ 6.75% Borrow for 6 months, buy an FRA & invest for 12 months To get $ 1.065 at the end of 12 months for $ 1 invested today To pay $ 1.060# at the end of 12 months for every $ 1 Borrowed today Net gain $ 0.005 i.e. risk less profit for every $ borrowed # (1+0.05/2) (1+.0675/2) = (1.05959) say 1.060 <br>

I am wondering if we do answer like in Suggested what is the point of spot rate and forward rate in question

Renu if you could find in textbooks or any other books in India where solution has been done. Here in Nepal text books are not readily available

Renu, I had asked for expert advice a year ago  link is /experts/finance-sfm-may-2010-651840.asp

 

Awesome going mam..undoubtedly I have cleared 1st group so along with that SFM..but yet found it very precise and up to the mark..helped me recalling..Thnk u !!

@ Deep ...

You can't simply write in practical subjects .. no matter how much you write ...if u can't understand it... its totally vain. Trust me ...its a real pain in exams. Don't waste your time in writing concepts blindly.

 

the question you have asked from is Indian capital market. In forex  chapter, you won't have to find any term with reference to Forward Rate agreement . There is clear cut difference b/w the forex chapter and ICM

And in exams not every figure has a relevant value ..such things are put just to create a doubt .. you know that very well ... So raising a question and worrying about the same doesn't matter at all.

you can check ICAI study mat + PM + compiler ( its all enough for practicising anything ) And still if you need any more books you can check on Net or Caclub too. why go anywhere ...

 

And the question you have asked in expert section. Money rate is also called nominal rate. And its the same formula of Internation fischer effect. the rate you need to pay for borrowing the funds.

Really glad to hear your feedback mansi angel

Ad issual excetllent start back thanks

hey can u explain the situation in case when there is early cancellation of currency forward contracts and the amount payable or receivable by the customer to the bank??????

 

@ Renu

Answer was found in books of Makkar new ( printed version )
(1+.12/4)(1+i/4) = (1 + 0.115/2)
i = 10.68 %

Similarly for $,
(1+.055/2) = ( 1 + 0.06/4) ( 1+i/4)
i = 4.93 %


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